Abstract: The seasonal cycles of migratory birds in predicting the carrying capacity of a marine ecosystem in the Kingdom of Bahrain was conducted. This study specifically determines the total number of avian migrants at varying months and annual cycles; find out significant difference in the total number of non-volant avian migrants at different annual cycles; and predict the carrying capacity (M) of the marine ecosystem using a logistic model. Results showed that the total number of avian migrants is high during the month of December in 2013 (642), and low in January 2011 (516). Similarly, the total number is high in cycle 3 (2013) with a total of 2,720 non-volant avian migrants while low in cycle 1 (2011) with 2,242. Statistical analysis using ANOVA revealed significant difference in the number of avian migrants at varying annual cycles. Avian migrants preferred the marine ecosystem as their temporary habitat during their annual cycles which provides various resources. The carrying capacity (M) of the identified marine ecosystem can be predicted using a logistic model. Assuming that the population growth rate of avian migrants is low (r = 0.4), and M = 1000, results depicted that the fraction of unused carrying capacity can still support the growing population. This is evidenced by the 45% unused fraction of the carrying capacity during the terminal cycle in 2013. Results further predict that the future carrying capacity will be reduced. Hence, the annual cycles of avian migrants predicts the carrying capacity of the identified marine ecosystem using a logistic model.
Keywords: Avian migrants, Carrying capacity, Marine ecosystem, Logistic model